The 15 minute head start that beats the 5 AM crowd every time

I used to leave my place in Portland right at 7:15 to hit the Steel Bridge bike lane before it turned into a parking lot. Problem was everyone else had the same idea, so I'd get stuck behind a line of riders doing 8 mph and eating my time. Then I tried leaving at 7:00 even though I hate mornings, and the difference was wild, empty lanes, no weaving around delivery trucks, and I actually got to work 10 minutes earlier than when I left later. But here's the thing, my buddy swears the opposite works for him on the east side, he leaves at 7:45 and just takes a slower neighborhood route that avoids the main path entirely. So which is better, fighting for a fast lane with everyone or taking the quiet way that adds 2 miles but never stops? I feel like it depends on your exact stretch of road, but I'm ready to be convinced otherwise if someone's got the numbers to back it up.